Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Florida, the Aftermath

Second verse, same as the first...


- John McCain. With his win in Florida, he went from being an also-ran to being a serious contender for the Republican nomination. The media seem to have crowned McCain, and the voters are paying attention to this. The combination of his military service and his moderate politics make for a candidacy that seems to be able to draw voters from multiple sources, which might just be enough to take the nomination.

- Hillary Clinton. Although nothing was at stake for the Democrats in Florida due to them moving up their primary date and being slapped down by the national party leadership, Hillary walked away with a decisive win. It may not be enough to put the racial element of the Democrat campaign behind her, but it will give her the same media credibility that McCain's getting.

- Hispanic voters. The Clinton campaign is proving that the Hispanic vote is worthy of note this election cycle, as we all should. This is one reason neither major political party wants to do anything about illegal immigration; they both hope to tap into this relatively undiscovered voting bloc. Hillary's campaigning in Nevada and Florida shows she's serious about doing just that with impressive results thusfar. Don't be surprised if Democrats and Republicans start to make more overt gestures towards Hispanic voters than they did in the 2004 election.

- Mitt Romney. Although he took second in Florida and did not win any delegates, he remained close to McCain, losing by 5%. Cold comfort, I know, but it speaks to the strength of Romney's campaign. He may not win every contest, but he continues to come in first or second in most of the contests so far. Super Tuesday will determine his fate, and he will need to line up some victories to stay in the hunt.

- The media. It's no secret who the media are supporting for both major party's nominees, and with Florida, they were able to become king-makers, if only for a state. With that kind of power, watch for them to flex it right before Super Tuesday to seal the deal for McCain and Hillary.


- Rudy Giuliani. Florida was his firewall, and it may prove to be his Waterloo. He had his best showing to date, beating out Mike Huckabee for third, but it was not the outcome he expected. Nor was it the victory or near victory he needed to stay viable. When you get blown out by 21% in a state you could have won, it's time to reconsider whether you should be in the race.

- Barack Obama. Obama came in a distant second to Hillary in Florida, but the reason he's on the list of losers out of Florida is because he took Hillary at her word when she promised not to campaign in Florida. Even though there was nothing at stake, it was still a naive move to believe Hillary wouldn't campaign, given her strategy and desperation. It gives her more credibility in the media, which will undercut Obama's chances somewhat. Given time, it can derail his Presidential chances.

- Mike Huckabee and John Edwards. Still sliding towards oblivion, and still not doing well enough to stay near the head of the pack. These two are put together because they're getting forgotten in their respective party's two-person races. They're not generating the buzz they were able to after Iowa, and with each new primary or caucus, they're falling further and further behind.

Now, onto Super Tuesday!

1 comment:

Anonymous said...


4 Iraqi Army servicemen and 6 civilians injured as IED exploded targeting an army patrol in Bab al-Sharji, Sadoon St. in central Baghdad at 08:00 this morning.

3 policemen and 5 civilians injured as IED exploded targeting a police patrol Sina'a St, the industrial neighbourhood near The University of Technology at 08:30 this morning.

An IED targeted an American military patrol in Canal St. east Baghdad. No casualyies reported.

3 civilians injured in an IED explosion in al-Dakhiliya neighbourhood, al-Yarmouk, south Baghdad at 10:30 am..

A mortar round hit al-Fdhailiyah neighbourhood, east Baghdad injuring 2 civilians at 11:00 am.

3 Katyusha missiles hit the green zone starting at 02:50 this afternoon at almost 30 minute intervals. No casualties were reported.

A roadside bomb went off targeting an American military patrol in Ameriyah wounding 5 US soldiers and 3 Iraqis.

3 bodies were found in Baghdad today by Iraqi Police. 1 in Ma’amil, 1 in Shaab and 1 in Doura.


A vehicle born IED driven by a suicide bomber targeted an American military patrol in al-Thubbat neighbourhood, central Mosul Killing 1 and injuring 15 civilians. The Americans cordoned the area off. No American casualties were reported.

2 policemen killed and 2 injured as gunmen attacked a vehicle carrying 4 policemen of the Mosul police force on the main road to Baghdad yesterday afternoon.


In Muqdadiyah, 25 km to the east of Baquba, Iraqi security forces found 9 unidentified bodies shot in the chest by the the road side and also found 10 severed heads some way away at noon today. said one plice source. The investigation, that is still ongoing showed that they were killed around two days ago. Another police source said that only 9 bodies were found, in a field, and that they were decapitated.


An armed group attacked a police commander’s motorcade which was also carrying some high ranking officials of the Tharthar area near Saqlawiyah town 20 km to the north of Fallujah, but were unsuccessful in their attempt. A police force was sent on their trail, with allegedly Sahwa members. They rounded up 20 people suspected of being amongst the attackers and executed them in the same neighbourhood.

Two truck drivers were abducted and taken along with their trucks on the route between Fallujah and Tharthar. Their hands were bound and they were killed by releasing their freight of pebbles upon them.

The police at Saqlawiyah police station opened fire upon two suspicious men headed for the police station. The two men then exploded and it was found that they had been wearing explosive belts. 5 policemen were superficially injured.


District Commissioner of Salman Bek district and member of the provincial council for the Kurdistan Coalition party, Talib Mohammed Mustafa survived an assassination attempt. He and his driver got away from the attack that was carried out with machine guns and other light weapons on the main road to the south of Tuz.

Fatma al-Haseni was seriously injured and her two colleagues were killed by gunmen in the Mahatta neighbourhood on the way between Baghdad and Tikrit this afternoon. Al-Haseni and her deceased colleagues worked for the Furat satellite station.